As gasoline’s bullish ride fades next year, Africa’s gasoline imports will be a bright spot for European exporters, according to ESAI Energy’s recently published Africa Watch. In 2018, sub-Saharan Africa is set to import more gasoline from Europe as demand increases. This increase in imports will come on top of two consecutive years of expanding gasoline deficits, especially in Nigeria, where refineries have run far below capacity.
The Africa Watch report describes how Sub-Saharan Africa’s import requirement are set to rise by 20,000 b/d, to 410,000 b/d, in 2018, which will draw more barrels from Europe. Gasoline demand in Nigeria will rise by 45,000 b/d this year and by 20,000 b/d in 2018, which will bring Nigeria’s demand up to 255,000 b/d. This increase comes despite higher retail gasoline prices. As a result, Nigeria’s gasoline imports are set to rise again next year after rising 40,000 b/d this year, deepening the regional deficit.
“Nigeria’s higher gasoline consumption has already provided bullish support for the European gasoline market this year.” said Chris Cote, energy market analyst at ESAI Energy. “Next year, Nigeria and the rest of the region’s gasoline imports will rise again, making the African market a bright spot for European exporters as other prospects fade.”
About ESAI Energy LLC: Energy Security Analysis, Inc. (ESAI), founded in 1984, is a global energy consulting company that provides market research and strategic advisory services. ESAI Energy LLC provides outlooks ranging from 1-week to 25-years and a proprietary framework for interpreting and prioritizing empirical market data and industry information. ESAI Energy’s detailed analysis of energy markets identify and explain future market trends and opportunities for energy and energy dependent companies.