The IEA Oil Market Report was published in mid April, data from the report can be found here.

 

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The EIA’s STEO was published on May 9, 2017.

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I assume in the chart above that OPEC crude output is 32 Mb/d in the last three quarters of 2017.

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The chart above assumes World commercial petroleum stocks are 5200 million barrels in Dec 2011, days of demand is total stock divided by the current month’s actual or forecasted demand (after Jan 2017). We don’t have good data on World petroleum stock levels, I used the OECD commercial stock levels in early 2012 as a guide and assumed World days of forward supply was similar to OECD levels at that time (about 59 days), then the supply and demand balance from the EIA data was used to find the World stock level from 2012 to 2018.

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The chart above shows the average of the EIA and IEA scenarios I have presented (assuming OPEC crude output averages 32 Mb/d for the final three quarters of 2017 for the IEA scenario.) The demand scenarios are very close from 2015 to 2018, the supply scenarios diverge after the first quarter of 2017, with the EIA supply scenario matching demand and the IEA scenario falling short by about 1.3 Mb/d in the third and fourth quarters of 2017.

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