The EIA has apparently stopped publishing its International Energy Statistics. Instead they are now publishing an abbreviated version on their Total Energy web page titled: Tabel 11.1b World Crude Oil Production. Here they publish crude + condensate production numbers for Persian Gulf Nations, Selected Non-OPEC Countries, Total Non-OPEC and World. The “Selected Non-OPEC Producers are Canada, China, Egypt, Mexico, Norway, Russia, United Kingdom and the United States. They have just released their latest data through February 2016.
All the data below is in thousand barrels per day and through February 2016 unless otherwise noted.
They have world C+C peaking, so far, in November 2015 at 80,630,000 bpd. February production was 79,653,000 bpd, or 977,000 bpd below the peak. World C+C production, they say, averaged 80,035,000 in 2015. Average for the first two months of 2016 was 79,933.000 or 102,000 bpd below the average for 2015.
So with world production continuing to decline, there is little doubt that 2016 production will be well below 2015 production.
They have Non-OPEC peaking in March 2015 at 46,504,000 bpd and down by 925,000 bpd in February to 45,579,000 bpd.
They do not publish the OPEC C+C numbers but it is easy enough just to subtract the Non-OPEC data from the World data and the get the data. OPEC C+C failed to breach its 2012 peak but did reach 34,562,000 bpd in July 2015 but by February 2016 it was down 488,000 bpd to 34,074,000 bpd.
This is the EIA’s version of Canadian production. It looks exactly like Canada’s National Energy Board data except the EIA’s data is about 150,000 bpd less than Canada’s NEB shows. Obviously Canada is counting something that the EIA is not. Look for Canada’s production to decline substantially in 2016. And those May wildfires will not help at all.
China has peaked. The only question left to be answered is how fast will she decline? There are several articles on the web about China’s decline, but they all say about the same thing.
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics released on Saturday showed China produced 16.59 million tonnes of crude oil last month, or about 4.04 million barrels per day (bpd), the lowest rate since July 2013 on a daily basis.
Egypt is in a slow decline. But we have been knowing that for years.
Mexico managed to stem their decline for a few months but their production has begun to decline again.
Norway, which produced around 3 million barrels per day from 1996 to 2004, has now dropped to almost half that amount. But they have managed halt the decline in 2012 and have since even increased their production slightly. It is likely they will continue to hold this production for at least another year. They are managing to buck the trend.
The UK peaked at just under 3 million barrels per day in 1998 and for the last three years or so has averaged about one third that amount. But the UK has also managed to stem their decline. For how long, I have no idea.
Russia has been a real shocker. No one, inside or outside Russia, expected them to increase production by over 200,000 bpd over the last few months. *Production declined by .7 percent in April according to the Russian Energy Ministry: *Russian daily oil production down in April. My above projection was made using average change in production of the Energy Ministry’s data.
Everyone has a different opinion on what to expect from Russia next year. Everyone now expects their production to increase slightly this year. I say now because everyone had a different opinion a few months ago. But…
The USA is, of course a big part of what is happening to world oil production, and will continue to play a big part. I think US production will continue to decline for another year or so. After that? I think production will flatten out then increase slightly. But the boom times very expensive shale oil brought are over.
Iran is the main reason the the price induced decline has not become obvious.
In conclusion: In spite of the recent increase in Russian production as well as the slight increase from the North Sea, in spite of the dramatic production increase from Iran due to the lifting of sanctions, world crude oil production is in decline. And while it is true that most of this decline is due to the price crash it remains to be seen just how much production will recover when the price returns to… to… wherever it returns to before it stops.
But… the decline has only just begun. The price collapse caused the plateau in world oil production that begun about March 2015. However the decline did not actually begin until January 2016. The dramatic rise in production from Iran has kept the decline from becoming obvious to everyone. However when the May production numbers come in, I think it will then become obvious to everyone.