The International Energy Agency warned Thursday the oil market is entering a “very crucial period” due to uncertainties over Libya and Venezuela and Iranian sanctions, and said demand in non-OECD countries was proving mostly resilient to currency depreciations.
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In its monthly oil market report, the IEA highlighted Venezuela’s continuing decline, this week’s attack on the headquarters of Libya’s NOC, and a sharp reduction in Iranian output ahead of the reinstatement of US sanctions on November 4.
It estimated Iran’s crude production had fallen by 150,000 b/d to a 25-month low of 3.63 million b/d in August.
On the demand side the IEA raised its estimate of China’s oil demand growth this year to 640,000 b/d, from 490,000 b/d in its previous report, and said non-OECD demand was by and large proving “resilient” in the face of currency depreciations against the dollar, although risks to this view remain.
The IEA trimmed its estimate of non-OPEC supply growth next year to 1.84 million b/d, from 1.85 million b/d in last month’s report, while maintaining its estimates of global demand growth at 1.4 million b/d this year and 1.5 million b/d next year.
It also estimated that global oil supply, including natural gas liquids and biofuels, hit a record-high 100 million b/d in August.
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