All OPEC data is from the latest OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report and is in thousand barrels per day. All data is through July 2018.
OPEC crude oil production was up 41,000 barrels per day in July but that was after June production was revised down by 43,000 bpd. So OPEC production is actually down 2,000 bpd from what was reported last month.
The big difference here is in what secondary sources says Saudi Arabia produced in July, down 52,800 bpd, and what Saudi says they produced, down 200,5000 bpd. What Venezuela says they produced has no basis in reality.
Algeria seems to have halted their decline, at least temporarily.
The Congo is new to OPEC but their production is not enough to make much difference.
Secondary sources say Iran was down 56,300 barrels per day in July but Iran said they were up 4,000 bpd. Who to believe here?
Secondary sources say Iraq was up 24,100 barrels per day. Iraq says they were up 100,000 bpd.
Kuwait was up 78,500 bpd in July.
Libya seems to be a long way from solving their political problems.
Nigerian production was up 70,500 barrels per day in July but their June production was revised down by 63,000 bpd.
Saudi Arabia was down 52,800 barrels per day in July, they say it was 200,500 bpd. Look for their July production to be revised downward next month.
The UAE was up 69,200 barrels per day in July.
There is just no hope for Venezuela.
But Venezuela’s oil sector is in shambles, so oil traders are apparently already of the mind that it cannot possibly get any worse. A coup even leaves open the very remote possibility of a rebound, although, as Francisco Monaldi details, growing production by, say, 200,000 bpd per year would require a sustained effort, including investments of around $20 billion per year for a decade. Not to mention a radical change in the political context and a macroeconomic stabilization program. Needless to say, none of that appears to be in the cards anytime soon.
If Venezuela ever does increase production it will be long after peak oil is history.
Here is where all and any increase in OPEC production will come from.
And the big 5 has the burden of increasing production faster than the other 10 decreases production. That will be a challenge.
And I just had to add this. This is more than 50% of the world’s crude oil production.