Hi Nick,

Plus the people who are determined to believe what they please never take into account such factors as changing lifestyles.

It may be true that electricity demand will grow at a fast clip, but it’s about equally likely in my opinion that we will see the per capita consumption remain flat or even decline, excepting any new consumption resulting from switching to electric cars.

If I were building a new house today, it would need only half as much electricity for heating and cooling as the house I live in now…. which has been upgraded from fifties standards to nineties or oughties standards, which is about all I can afford to do on it, considering I won’t be around forever.

And it’s almost dead certain that appliances will be twice as energy efficient as they are now, twenty years from now, because we’ve just scratched the surface in terms of energy efficiency when it comes to electric motors, insulation, electronic controls, etc.

I believe in Jevon’s Paradox, but I’m not so stupid as to be religious about that belief, as a lot of people are, including some who post here.

Almost every body I know used as much lighting as they pleased BEFORE they switched to LED’s……. I don’t know more than a couple of people who are still using the old incandescent bulbs. Net result, everybody I know, taken as group, has cut his energy for lighting by at least two thirds.

And it’s simply not possible for most people to use a hell of a lot more gasoline simply because it’s cheap. They’re too busy. If per capita consumption of gasoline goes up, in developed countries such as the USA, it will be mostly because gasoline is cheap enough that oversized and and over powered vehicles remain popular.

Nearly every body I know, including a lot of people below the official poverty line, eats as much as he wants, and way the hell more processed food than is good for him. Energy per capita for food isn’t likely to go up.

Jevon’s Paradox isn’t as big a problem as most people seem to think, except in developing countries.

I don’t see any problem at all with the grid in terms of charging electric cars. The people who own and run the industry seem to be salivating at the thought of selling more juice, lol, as best I can tell.

When the demand is there, they will be GLAD to run more transmission lines, and to build or retain enough old generating capacity to meet the demand.

The only real problems will likely arise in places where the very people most interested in electric cars will be opposed to allowing new transmission lines to be built.

Consider New Yorkers, and their political tendencies, and desire to be clean and up to date. They need new gas lines, but they won’t allow them to be built. So they will get along as best they can using old and obsolete lines and tech, such as oil furnaces in some cases……. because they can’t get gas enough to switch, lol.

Environmentally aware people, especially the ones with money, tend to be hypocritical about such things sometimes. We want electricity, we want gas, but we want it delivered by magic.

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