The ongoing fast degradation of farm land due to erosion, over use of fertilizers, salty irrigation water, etc will soon be cutting into food production in many many places.
Some places are already running desperately short of irrigation water of any sort at all, even salty water.
Then there is the additional loss of land to development.
It’s an open question how much longer food production can even be held steady, let alone increased to feed a still growing world population.
New technology will help, but given the political calculus, it seems unlikely to be it will be developed and adopted fast enough to offset losses for the reasons I mention above.
Betting on new technology is generally a safe bet, but betting on it being commercialized and widely adopted within any given time frame is NOT AT ALL a safe bet, especially if the time frame is short.
And Sky Daddy alone knows how long it will be before the climate changes enough to start reducing the average yield of staple crops in the world’s breadbasket areas.
A matter of only five or ten days of reliably frost free weather make a HELL of a difference when you are planting and harvesting. Most well informed people understand the importance of the growing season, but other than people in the field, hardly anybody appreciates just how big a down side difference a few extra days of extra hot weather can make. Combine extremely hot weather for a week or two with dry weather at the same time, and you may be looking at a potential loss of production that can run as high as twenty to thirty percent in grain fields even if you get rain right afterwards.
Some people who are qualified to have opinions think we have seen substantial climate disruption already, but that so far it is being offset by more irrigation, more fertilizer, more pesticide,etc.
There is no doubt at all that some countries in the Middle East and Africa are already suffering from unusually bad and prolonged droughts that may be worse than usual due to forced warming.
The current generation of orchardists in my area are losing substantial production to frost probably twice as often over the last decade or two as their parents and grand parents lost out to frost going back to about 1900.
My personal knowledge based on conversations with the old folks now long gone doesn’t extend past that point. They didn’t keep written records, but nobody who farms has any trouble remembering the years he was wiped out by bad weather. My personal knowledge extends back to the fifties.
It’s not that frost is coming later, but rather that we are experiencing unusually warm late winter weather that brings the trees out of dormancy earlier, and then a frost that would normally not be a problem morphs into a REAL problem, real fast.
You work your orchard for a year at a loss. You can turn your back on a cornfield or wheat field wiped out by bad weather, but you can’t abandon an orchard for a year without bringing on serious problems later.
A man with his feet in a fire and his hands in ice water may be statistically comfortable……………