Periods of oil export increase take place when oil is affordable and abundant, and they signal global economy expansion.

Oil exports become stagnant when oil is expensive or constrained or both. During the 2010-14 period some countries expanded their economies at the expense of others that contracted. The inversion in renewable energies increased greatly as oil, while abundant, was expensive.

With the oil price drop of 2014 the global economy started to expand. At the same time investment in renewable energies started to decreased in many countries. The entrance into a period of plateau in oil production is driving an increase in prices that is putting an end to this economic expansion.

The response to a clear future oil scarcity is to reduce global oil demand. The Federal Reserve has started a tightening policy with the idea of undoing the quantitative easing policies of the recent past. EU, Japan and China will have to follow suit or watch their currencies drop like a stone. Weak developing countries cannot do anything and are seeing the flows of money reverting, sinking their currencies and economies. Turkey is leading the way, but the problems are extending to Argentina, South Africa, and Brazil, and will eventually cause problems in Russia and India. All these economies will be reducing their oil demand when they enter recession, releasing pressure on global production.

However the economic problems of a part of the world are likely to spread to the rest, as their demand for goods and products decreases. Contagion can affect weak highly indebted economies really fast. Trade protectionism on the rise will make everything worse.

The chances of a serious global economic crisis in the next 1-2 years are very high. It would have the same trigger as the previous one, the inability to have cheap abundant oil, complicated by a growing difficulty to increase the level of debt in many countries.

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