I want to continue the discussion on TX completion trends from the last post. Everyone was mentioning a slow down in completions, but below is what I get from the Texas Railroad Commission for the Permian (districts 7C, 8, and 8A) new drill oil completions.

The spike in production in the August EIA 914 is somewhat surprising given completions were flat to trending down in the first half of 2018. We’ll have to wait to get the November and December monthly numbers, but the 561 completions in October is concerning. Is the data just late? Does October reflect completions that took place in August, which juiced production numbers, but not reported until later?

It’s also puzzling to reconcile the October and November completions numbers with commentary from pressure pumpers, sand companies, and other service providers, which all said things were slowing down. In the case of sand, new local mines continue to open, so perhaps the pressure was limited to northern white (which shows up disproportionately in public disclosure given a lot of the local sand is in the hands of private companies compared to northern white). Maybe pressure pumpers are dealing with too much capacity added rather than a slow down in completions. Doesn’t really add up.

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