Your question on the last thread prompted me to both read Chesapeake’s conference call transcript and do a long overdue check on the USGS’s 2011 Marcellus assessment.
Regarding Chessy’s financials, that is something you may well be far more familiar than I, along with the entirety of operators – collectively – in this unconventional arena.
Regarding operations, however, my long running observing this stuff prompts me to offer you these perspectives …
Chesapeake is transitioning to oil and away from gas.
Following EOG’s lead, they are increasing attention to both the Eagle Ford and the shallower Austin Chalk, as well as the Powder River Basin.
The stacked PRB holds enormous potential, but is in its very early days.
Regarding natgas in general and the Appalachian Basin in particular, there is almost too much of it, certainly at $3/mmbtu.
The 4 big takeaway pipelines currently under construction – Rover, Nexus,Atlantic Sunrise, and Leach Xprees – will bring almost 7 Bcfd to market, the equivalent to the Haynesville.
Within 15/24 months, the Mountaineer Xpress, Mountain Valley, Penneast, and Atlantic Coast should be operational, adding an additional 7Bcfd.
The MVP and ACP are especially significant as the southeastern US will access cheap natgas for their burgeoning CCGT power plant build out.
This will send the solar/wind producers forevermore to the cornfield which is why the environmentalists’ opposition has gone ballistic.
In 2011, USGS pegged 84 TCF recoverable from Marcellus. (Recent Haynesvile/Bossier was 300 Tcf).
Parameters used were 150 acre average size per ‘cell’, equating to 4 wells per square mile. Mean recovery (EUR) was 1.15 Bcf.
Although not stated, at least I could not find it, lifespan is usually given as 30 years.
Mr. Leopold, Chessy’s McGavin 6 well has produced 4.3 Bcf first 90 days.
Meaning of all this?
There is an almost unimaginable amount of gas in the AB in particular, and several other areas in the US and, most probably, throughout the world.
These past half dozen years have been paradigm-shattering in multiple ways with the biggest disruptions yet to come.