The big issue with shale is the oil price.
I realize that is a “duh” comment, but IMO oil prices above $50 WTI are vital to survival, and likely much higher prices are needed for the long term to make shale overall a successful business on the whole.
It is very interesting to go back to 10K in the 1990s, where oil prices were generally below $25, and see companies were able to generate positive returns on upstream.
Now, $45 for 5 years would BK the majority.
In 2004 we did great at $45 oil. Now we just get by.
Assuming the world needs more oil annually for awhile yet, either the price will need to stay high and and keep trending higher, or someone will have to subsidize production.
World oil demand was 80 million BOPD in 2003. Have now hit 100 despite much higher prices.
IEA sees demand for plastics adding 7 million BOPD to demand by 2050. Article says a decent amount of this growth will be from the surge in the production of electric cars.
How many barrels of oil are burned per electric car, including all of the transportation costs involved?