Dean Fantazzini has provided his latest estimates for Texas Oil and Natural Gas output.
Data below is for Texas C+C estimates in kb/d.
Data below is for Texas Natural Gas in billions of cubic feet per day (BCF/d). All data uses all vintage data for the correction factors and 3 months uses only the average of the correction factors for the most recent 3 months.
The chart below shows how the correction factors have changed over time, the average of these correction factors for T to T-11 are found for all vintage data (all shown in chart), most recent 3 months, and most recent 12 months and compared with EIA data. The average correction factor is added to the most recent Texas RRC reported output data. For the current report T= June 2017, T-1= May 2017, etc. The actual estimate in the first chart shown above uses Data for T to T-23, but I only showed the data for T to T-11 in the chart below. The correction factors get progressively smaller as we go further back in time (T-23 is the smallest).
After June 2016 there was a shift in the correction factors to lower average values. The table below shows the average correction factors for the most recent 12 months (July 2016 to June 2017) and compares with the average correction factor from earlier data (April 2014 to June 2016). The RRC data seems to be improving, but for the most recent 7 months (Nov 2016 to June 2017) about 100 kb/d to 500 kb/d needs to be added to the RRC data to “correct” for incomplete data. Those with access to the “pending file” from the RRC have a better shot at a good estimate. This data is included in the estimates from drilling info for Texas.