The data below was taken from the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report. All data is through April 2019 and is in thousand barrels per day. The data is crude only, that is it does not include condensate.
Total OPEC production hardly moved in April, down a mere 3,000 barrels per day.
Algeria peaked in 2008 and has been in slow decline ever since.
Angola is also in slow decline.
The Republic of the Congo, not the DRC, is the newest member of OPEC but they hardly produce enough to count.
Iran took another hit in April, down 164,000 barrels per day due to Trump sanctions.
Iraq is obviously ignoring sanctions and producing every barrel they possibly can.
There has been little change in Kuwait’s crude production. They peaked in 2013 but have been holding steady since.
Libya seems to be making some progress against its rebel insurgents.
Nigeria had a nice uptick of 92,000 barrels per day in April.
Saudi Arabia dropped another 45,000 barrels per day in April.
I think the UAE is at maximum production. The three-month peak in the last quarter of 2018 was extraordinary efforts just to get a high quota.
Venezuela showed a slight uptick in April.
This shows which countries are sticking to quotas and who is not. Iran, Libya, and Venezuela are exempt from quotas so the total OPEC leaves them out. Saudi Arabia is producing 569,000 barrels per day below their quota. Why?
The statement that OPEC’s crude oil share in total global production is 30.4% is a bit misleading. They are comparing OPEC crude only to world total liquids. I did a calculation based on the EIA’s data and OPEC’s share of total C+C has averaged about 41.5% over the last three years though it is down to about 39% now.
Russian April C+C production down 221,000 barrels per day from their December peak. That is according to the Russian Minister of Energy. Their data is in tons so I used 7.33 barrels per ton.
OPEC + Russia, about 52% of world oil production, down from about 55% just a few months ago. This is why 2019 world oil production will be below that of 2018. I expect OPEC + Russia to hold close to this level for the rest of the year. The rest of non-OPEC will not make up the difference.
Note: This graph adds OPEC crude only to Russian C+C.
US C+C production through February 2019. The US took a hit in February primarily to a drop in the Gulf of Mexico. US production is down 280,000 barrels per day from its December high.
The above data is through January 2019. Only USA production is holding off world peak oil.
This chart is also through January 2019. Russia will not hold off peak oil, Canada will not hold off peak oil and certainly, Brazil will not hold off peak oil. OPEC peaked in 2016 so they will not hold off peak oil. It’s all up to the good old US of A. Are we up to the task?
Found this at the link below link about a Permian trucking company closing. Not sure what it means.