Often these correlations don’t continue beyond the end of the chart, through Feb 2019 Permian output has continued to increase, and there can be a lack of correlation with rig counts as there are DUCs that can be completed, if completion rate goes down, then output will flatten, but I have modelled how far completion rate would need to fall in order for this to occur. We would need to see the Permian horizontal oil well completion rate fall from about 410 completed wells per month in Dec 2018 to 295 wells per month in Dec 2019 and the rate would need to continue to fall to 240 completed wells per month by Dec 2022 for the scenario below which has barely decreasing tight oil output.

We do not know future completion rates, but I doubt they will fall enough to reduce Permian tight oil output unless oil prices fall back to under $40/b, which I think is highly unlikely.

It is possible that the rate of increase will slow down from the 2017-2018 average, my guess is 600 to 900 kb/d annual increase on average over the next 4 years, with a best guess of 750 kb/d average annual increase.

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